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Thursday, November 29, 2007

Thirteen Indian companies among Asia's 100 fastest-growing

Thirteen Indian companies are among a list of Asia's 100 fastest-growing small and mid-size companies - Asia''''s Hot Growth Companies - prepared by US financial magazine BusinessWeek.

Some of the Indian companies also emerge on top in terms of sales and capital returns, the magazine said in its report.

India, with 13 companies, comes in third after Taiwan and Japan, who have been represented by 24 and 18 firms respectively.

India has a higher number of such companies than China, whose presence is limited to just eight firms.

Hong Kong-based Ajisen Holdings ranks at the top, followed by Raffles Education of Singapore.

Hong Kong, too, has 13 such firms while Korea has seven, Malaysia four, Singapore nine and Thailand two. The lone Pakistani firm Packages Limited, a manufacturer of paper products, ranks 84th.

Among the Indian firms, Lakshmi Machine Works is ranked 17, followed by Kirloskar Brothers (18) and Godrej Consumer Products (23).

Other Indian companies named in the list are Marico (40), Colgate-Palmolive India (45), Hexaware Technologies (53), GlaxoSmithkline Pharmaceuticals (60) Panacea Biotec (68), Bajaj Hindustan (72), Motherson Sumi Systems (79), Cummins India (83), I-flex Solutions (93) and Titan Industries (98).

Three Indian firms - Cummins India, Titan Industries and I-flex Solutions - are ranked first, second and third, respectively in terms of highest sales in 2006.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.