Inflation at a new high of 7.41%

Underlining the uncomfortable situation on the price front, the wholesale price index (WPI) rose to a near three and a half year high of 7.41% for the week ended March 29, 2008. Inflation had last stood above this level, at 7.68%, in the week ended November 12, 2004.

The latest spike is on account of a continued price upsurge increase in primary articles like vegetables, fruit and pulses, as well as a sharp increase in manufactured products like foundries, iron, steel, as well as basic metals. Delayed revisions to prices of some items in the WPI basket have also contributed to the spike seen this March (the index rose 2.3 percentage points within the month).

With today’s release of WPI inflation numbers for the last week of fiscal 2007-08, average annual inflation for the year stands at 4.44%, below the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance level of 5% for the year. The WPI estimate for the week ended February 2 was also revised upwards to 4.74%, a sizeable revision from the earlier estimate of 4.07%.

“The manufactured products sub-index increased 0.9% week-on-week owing to an outsized jump of 3.8% in the prices of base metals, alloys and metal products, and a 0.8% increase in manufactured food items. The primary articles sub-index rose 0.2% week-on-week to be up 8.9% over year ago,” said Rajeev Malik, senior economist, JP Morgan.

The price spike comes even as industrial production growth picked up in February, prompting Malik to say he expects a 50 basis points hike in the cash reserve ratio in the on or before the April 29 monetary policy review.

Dharmakirti Joshi, principal economist, Crisil, said the price situation remained “very uncomfortable” on the food and vegetables front. “The data is surprising and beyond my imagination. People will have to wait for interest rates to ease and the RBI may actually tighten rates,” he said, adding that inflation would moderate in coming weeks as the impact of recent fiscal measures taken to cool prices of items like edible oil get reflected in the WPI.

The data once again underscores the problems that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government on trying to control prices of politically sensitive items like food, a point underscored by World Bank president Robert Zoellick in a recent speech at Washington. “Since 2005, the prices of staples have jumped 80%. Last month, the real price of rice hit a 19-year high; the real price of wheat rose to a 28-year high”, he had said.