Kailasam Raghavendra Rao, founder and MD of Chennai-based drugmaker Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, has said he repents borrowing money to buy more shares in his company and that he will never do it again. Mr Rao, who incurred a personal loss of Rs 75 crore when his lenders sold off 7.5% stake from his family's holdings on Monday, also denied market talk that the company had suffered forex losses.
But the bigger worry for Mr Rao would now be the vulnerability of the company for a takeover, as its market value at a mere Rs 750 crore is just a third of what it was just two months ago. With only 17% stake, the cash-strapped founders may find it difficult to resist such an eventuality, some market sources said. Ironically, it was this vulnerability that forced Mr Rao to try raising his stake with borrowed money.
Investors were rattled again on Tuesday as Orchid shares lost a further 10.3% to close at Rs 113.95 on BSE. “It has hurt me. And it has hurt so many other stakeholders,” Mr Rao, a first-generation entrepreneur and son of a railway clerk, told ET. “Borrowing to raise stake was an inappropriate thing to do.
It is a big lesson for me.” In March-April 2007, Mr Rao said he borrowed around Rs 85 crore from Indiabulls and Religare Finvest to raise the promoter stake from 17% to 24%. In an improvised system called promoter funding, brokerages lend money to company founders against a pledge of their shares. Indiabulls typically lends Rs 25-33 against shares worth Rs 100. Religare lent Mr Rao half the value.
“There are thresholds specified when the margin calls would come into play if the price falls,” Indiabulls CEO Gagan Banga said. Mr Rao had repaid around Rs 5 crore to these firms, but the market plunge invoked the thresholds last Friday. The two firms asked him to pay up the margins, which Mr Rao could not manage by Monday.
“I was in a village near Bangalore and the suddenness of the whole thing took me by surprise,” he said. When the stock fell further, partly as the beleaguered Bear Stearns sold off a million shares, the brokerages sold off a good portion of the pledged shares and recovered their money. Mr Rao's family lost about Rs 150 per share.
While Mr Rao has cleared his dues to these two firms, he still owes nearly Rs 65 crore to FIs and his current stake is pledged to them. “It is my priority to repay all those loans with my salary, dividend and profit share,” Mr Rao said.
Analysts said the bitter episode has shaken investor confidence on the integrity of the management and the stock is bound to reflect that. “While the company's operations are OK, this thing will set a wrong precedent. People will ask why promoters have dabbled in it,” said Sarabjit Kour Nangra, VP for research at Angel Broking.
Orchid's consolidated revenues for Q3 ended December 2007 rose 40% to Rs 347.38 crore while net profit rose 94% to Rs 49.96 crore. At Tuesday's price, Orchid shares were trading 7.2 times the company's expected 2007-08 earnings.
Analysts have been citing strong earnings visibility over the next two years and new product launches as reasons for their optimism on the stock. Just two weeks ago, LIC bought an additional 2.3% in the company to raise its stake to 7.8%.
Around the same time, Citigroup Global Markets had set a target price of Rs 386 for the stock with a ‘buy' recommendation. Domestic and foreign institutions hold more than 35% in the company while foreign companies hold about 15%.
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Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Orchid's Rao says learnt a lesson in choppy markets
Posted by Srivatsan at 4:25 PM
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Understanding Short Term Trading
Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.
Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.
Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.
Types of Moving Averages
1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)
SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.
2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.
The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.
A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.
In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.
Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.
Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.
Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.
Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.
Types of Moving Averages
1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)
SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.
2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.
The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.
A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.
In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.
Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.
Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.
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