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Friday, February 22, 2008

Kalyani to have Rs 6,500-cr unit in Bengal

Integrated steel, power project will have capacity of 1 million tonne and 500 mw respectively.

Kalyani Steels, a part of the Rs 8,000 crore Kalyani group that has diverse businesses such as engineering steel, forgings and auto components, today signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with state industry and minerals officials for a Rs 6,500 crore integrated steel and power project in West Bengal.

The steel plant will have a capacity of one million tonnes and the power plant is planned for 500 mw, along with downstream operations.

The agreement was signed with the West Bengal Industrial Development Corporation (WBIDC) and West Bengal Mineral Development & Trading Corporation (WBMDTC).

Amit B Kalyani, executive director, Kalyani Steels, said that the plant would essentially produce long products. For the downstream project, Kalyani group’s flagship company Bharat Forge may look at setting up a unit.

Kalyani said the group deliberated with the Bengal investment issue for a year and a half, before reaching an understanding on the nature of the project.

A detailed project report would be ready within a year. “We will definitely work within a shorter timeframe,” Kalyani said.

The project will be completed within 36 to 45 months from the commencement of work.

The next step would be to identify land for the project.

West Bengal minister for commerce and industry, Nirupam Sen, said, the company would be shown land in West Medinipur, near Salboni where JSW has a mega steel plant. Durgapur could be an alternative location.

The Bengal facility will be the third for the Kalyanis. The group has integrated steel plants at Ginigera in Karnataka and Tadipatri in Andhra Pradesh.

The group also has bigger plans for West Bengal. Kalyani said the group is in discussions with WBIDC for a high-end manufacturing cluster.

The minister said several companies were looking to invest in West Bengal as they have realised that a lot of investment is happening in the metals, metallurgy and automobile space in the state.

He said a high-end manufacturing park would also be set up and the association with the Kalyani group would help the state government attract other investors.

The Kalyani group was already setting up a similar project, though larger in size, in Maharashtra. Kalyani said the Maharashtra project would be completed in three years.

Also, Kalyani Thermal Systems, another group company, will make forgings for the Nano, the Rs 1 lakh car from the Tatas that is being manufactured at Singur in West Bengal. The company could look at setting up a unit in the state.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.