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Friday, February 22, 2008

PNB, Vijaya may exit Principal JVs

Contract skewed in favour of US major cited reason for parting ways.

Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Vijaya Bank have begun the process of exiting their joint ventures (JVs) with the US-based Principal Financial Group.

According to the agreement signed by the shareholders when forming the JV companies, the first right of refusal would be exercised by the shareholders if any partner decides to exit.

That means any partner who decides to exit should first offer his stake to the other shareholders in the JVs. If the current shareholders do not want to buy out, only then can the stake be offered to outside parties.

“We (PNB) are well protected. The agreements have several provisions to protect our interests. We have sent letters to all the shareholders, expressing our intent to exit the insurance broking, life insurance and financial planning company along with an offer to buy out our stake. We have not decided to exit from the asset management company,” said a PNB official, who did not want to be identified. Vijaya Bank officials declined to comment.

According to a banking source, since the joint venture companies are not listed, the two banks would not get the market value for their stakes, compelling them to sell at a discount.

“Whether the other shareholders will agree to buy or not or whether they will approve the new partners is too premature to talk,” said the PNB official.

An industry source said, “The entire contract is in favour of Principal and now the banks want to unwind it. Both the banks may end up selling their stakes to Principal Financial. However, after the banks exit, it will be a loss-making proposition to Principal as the customer base is from the banks.”

PNB and Vijaya Bank have three functional joint ventures with Principal Financial - Principal PNB Asset Management Company, PNB Principal Financial Planners and Principal PNB Insurance Advisory Company, an insurance broking firm.

The equity holding is similar in PNB Principal Financial Planners and Principal PNB Asset Management, where PNB owns 30 per cent stake, Principal 65 per cent stake and Vijaya Bank the remaining 5 per cent.

However, in the Principal PNB Insurance Advisory, PNB holds 30 per cent equity, with Principal holding 26 per cent, Berger Paints 25 per cent and Vijaya Bank 19 per cent.

In 2004, the plans of PNB, Vijaya Bank, Principal Financial and Berger Paints to form a life insurance company did not materialise as Principal Financial changed its plans and decided to offer pension products in India. This was in sync with their global strategy to concentrate on the pensions business.

Due to their differences, the shareholders did not revert to the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Irda), which had raised queries while screening their “R1” (initial) application.

Principal Financial is the largest pension company across the world and is the seventh largest life insurer in the US.

The two banks had formed Principal PNB Insurance Advisory Company in 2005. According to insurance norms, a shareholder in an insurance broking company cannot earn profit as a corporate agent.

The issues became severe when Irda sent a letter last year barring the employees of the two banks from selling insurance policies to the banks’ customers as sub-brokers. In 2004, Irda had raised objections to PNB and Vijaya Bank acting as corporate agents for National Insurance Company.

A few months ago, Vijaya Bank Chairman Prakash P Mallya had announced his intention of exiting all the JVs and also the proposed life insurance venture, as the stakes did not or would not make any significant additions to its revenues.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.