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Tuesday, February 19, 2008

ONGC lines up Rs 15,000cr revamp

Restructuring will start with the company's assets in Assam.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) will revamp its ageing infrastructure at oilfields across the country. The country's largest oil and gas production company will shell out around Rs 15,000 crore for this purpose.

The revamping will start with its assets in Assam. The company will soon float tenders worth Rs 2,500 crore, a senior company executive said. ONGC has three fields in Assam - Rudrasagar, Lakwa and Geleki. The Rudrasagar field is almost 40 years old.

"Replacing the equipment has become paramount as they are decades old. There are frequent leaks in pipelines from producing wells which lead to shutdowns," said the executive.

The crude oil and gas processing plant attached to the Lakwa field is also old. The unit trips if it is run for over five minutes. "Some gas that we can recover is thus lost," the executive added.

Once Assam Renewal Project is completed in three years, ONGC plans to increase oil production from these fields by 20 per cent.

The company produces around 26 million per year of crude oil from its fields in the country with around 1.1 million tonne per year of oil from its three fields in Assam. Earlier, production from Assam was 1.5 million tonne per year

Once the Assam mission is completed, the company will take up the old equipment in the company's fields in Gujarat and the east coast. The Ankleshwar and Cambay fields in Gujarat started production in the mid-1960s.

"We will now inject water and gas into the wells to keep the pressure in the wells intact. However, it could be a little too late as much of the reservoir pressure has already been lost," an ONGC executive from Assam said.

The company will also undertake enhanced oil recovery methods to recover more oil once the water and gas injection project is over. "All of that will require more investments and will take some time," the executive added.

"We must complete these projects to increase production as no major new discoveries have taken place in the last decade," the ONGC executive said.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.