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Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Dunlop no longer sick, rules AAIFR

Dismissing appeals from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) and the Bombay Stock Exchange against the rights issue of Dunlop India and listing and trading of its shares on various stock exchanges, the Appellate Authority for Industrial & Financial Reconstruction (AAIFR) in its final order gave a major relief to Dunlop today and observed that the net worth of the company has turned positive.

The company now intends to get its shares dematerialised and listed for trading on exchanges before going ahead with its fund-raising plans such as a rights issue subject to securing necessary compliances.

“The Board for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR) as well as AAIFR ceases to have any jurisdiction in respect of the respondent company (Dunlop India),” AAIFR said in its ruling.

On March 16, 2007, the market regulator and BSE had filed appeals with AAIFR against an BIFR order allowing a Rs 27 crore rights issue by Dunlop India.

The March 2007 BIFR order also directed five stock exchanges, including BSE, to lift suspension of trading, and directed NSDL and CDSL to allot international stocks identification number (ISIN) for Dunlop shares so that they could be traded in a dematerialised form on those exchanges.

After the final order today, all pending matters relating to the issue have become irrelevant, said Dunlop sources.

Dunlop planned to take up the issue of dematerialisation and listing of its shares immediately with relevant authorities, company sources added.

Dunlop was acquired by Pawan Kumar Ruia from the M R Chhabria group in December 2005. The March 2007 BIFR order also directed five stock exchanges, including BSE, to lift suspension of trading, and directed NSDL and CDSL to allot international stocks identification number (ISIN) for Dunlop shares so that they could be traded in dematerialised form on those exchanges.

After the final order issued by AAIFR today, all pending matters relating to the issue has become irrelevant, said Dunlop sources.

Dunlop aimed to take up the issue of dematerialisation and listing of its shares immediately with relevant authorities, company sources added.

Dunlop was acquired by Pawan Kumar Ruia from the M R Chhabria group in December 2005.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.