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Friday, March 7, 2008

Ratan Tata eyes stake in Ferrari

Tata Group Chairman Ratan Tata has evinced interest in buying a stake in the world's best-known supercar manufacturing company, Ferrari.

Tata said this in an interview to L'Espresso, an Italian media company. An excerpt from the interview quoted Tata as saying, “I have two passions in my life — cars and aircraft. I have always dreamt of being able to be a fighter pilot and I confirm my desire to participate in the shareholding of Ferrari.”

On Tuesday, Tata had unveiled the Nano car at the Geneva Motor Show after it debuted in India in January this year.

Rumours were also doing the rounds about Tata signing on the dotted line to buy the two luxury marques — Land Rover and Jaguar from Ford Motor Company — during his visit to the European region.

In 2006, Fiat raised its stake in Ferrari to 85 per cent, buying back stakes sold to financial investors, and has an option on a further 5 per cent sold to Arab Emirates’ Mubadala Development.

Tata joined the board of Fiat in May 2006 after the Italian car maker’s shareholders approved of it at the annual general meeting in Turin. His name was proposed by the Agnelli family, which controls IFIL, a company that holds 30 per cent stake in Fiat SpA.

In India, both companies share a close manufacturing and marketing relationship for cars made by both the companies using the joint manufacturing facility based in Ranjangaon, in Maharashtra. In addition, Fiat-owned brands, including Ferrari and Alfa Romeo (both supercar brands), will be made available in the country with the help of Tata Motors.

Both companies are working for development of newer products to be sold in India and overseas markets. Products made by Tata Motors will be marketed by Fiat in the Latin American countries and also in the European regions using Fiat's distribution network.

Earlier, Ratan Tata was invited by Ferrari and Fiat Chairman, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, to visit Italy, Cordero's hometown, to see what the country offers in terms of business prospects. "The country offers a lot of oppurtunities in the design and luxury sectors," added the Tata boss.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.