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Monday, March 10, 2008

Sobha to develop 12 mn sq ft space in 2008-09

Sobha Developers, a Bangalore-based real estate company, plans to take up 12 million square feet of development during fiscal 2008-09 for about Rs 2,200 crore.

Announcing this during the launch of ‘Sobha Lifestyle’, a residential project, company’s managing director J C Sharma said, “Of the 12 million square feet, 4 million will be commercial which will include hospitality and retail.”

“This will cover 5-6 cities, mainly in south India and funding is through customer advance, internal accruals and debt. We hope to complete smaller projects in 2-3 years and the larger ones in 4-5 years,” he added.

In 2007-08, the company took up projects on a similar scale. In the residential space, ongoing projects are 28 and forthcoming number 20. In commercial development ongoing is three projects aggregating 0.39 million square feet and forthcoming 16 projects aggregate to 15.11 million square feet. There are 28 projects on contract of 8.3 million square feet that are ongoing and forthcoming are 1.7 million square feet.

Of the projects in Bangalore, Sharma said, “The company plans to build two hotels and a mall. The mall, Global Mall, of 3 mn sq ft has a hotel and the second, a hotel on St Mark’s Road. The cost and project details are being worked out.”

“We are also foraying into Mysore with a 400,000 sq ft mall and a villa project in Jattihundi,” he added.

Sobha Developers on Sunday launched Rs 260 crore high-end ‘Sobha Lifestyle’ project near the Bangalore International Airport at Devanahalli spread across 55 acres, with 165 villas on sites measuring 5,000 sq ft, 7,500 sq ft and 10,000 sq ft. “This project is a 60:40 joint development with Rennaissance Holdings of Bangalore,” said Sharma.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.