Rating agency Crisil has revised its rating outlook on the non-convertible debenture programme of the commercial vehicle manufacturer Ashok Leyland to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ and reaffirmed its rating on the company’s commercial paper programme at ‘P1+’.
The revision in outlook reflects the likelihood of Ashok Leyland’s financial leverage increasing over the medium term, owing to its large committed debt-funded capital expenditure and investment plans. Due to the increased financial risk, the rating could become vulnerable in the scenario of a continued slowdown in the domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) segment, a release from the Crisil stated.
The agency expects that Ashok Leyland will implement its Rs 2,000 crore M&HCV project in Uttaranchal by March 2010 in order to avail of the fiscal benefits offered by the government. In addition, the fiscal benefits offered by the Uttaranchal project would also benefit the company over the medium to long term.
The deterioration in Ashok Leyland’s financial profile may correct itself over the medium term if M&HCV sales revive and the benefits from the capacity enhancement are realised. The performance of the domestic M&HCV industry and the ability of Ashok Leyland to reduce its exposure to the M&HCV market through its ventures in the light commercial vehicle (LCV), passenger vehicle, and engine segments, and through exports, will be key determinants of the company’s credit quality in the context of its increased financial risk profile.
Ashok Leyland’s operating margins for 2007-08 are estimated at 9.5 per cent in spite of a significant increase in raw material costs. Continuous cost reduction efforts, recent hikes in vehicle prices, and an improved working capital cycle are expected to cushion pressures on the company’s operating margins from input price hikes.
The company is slated to increase its capacity to 184,000 vehicles per annum from the current 84,000 vehicles per annum over the next four to five years. The rating is also constrained by Ashok Leyland’s vulnerability to cyclicality in the domestic demand for CVs, and limited success in the fast-growing LCV segment.
Understanding Short Term Trading
Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.
Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.
Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.
Types of Moving Averages
1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)
SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.
2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.
The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.
A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.
In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.
Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.
Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.
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