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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

L&T, TIDCO to build shipyard near Chennai

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO) signed a joint venture agreement to set up an integrated shipyard complex and port facility near Chennai. The partners will invest an estimated Rs 3,000 crore in the new facility, which will come up at Kattupalli village near Ennore in Tiruvallur district of Tamil Nadu.

The JV agreement was signed in Chennai today in the presence of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi and L&T chairman and managing director A M Naik.

Later, in a press release, L&T said the feasibility report for the project has been completed, and necessary environmental studies are under progress. Construction is likely to start by the end of 2008, and the project will be completed in 24 months, the release added.

The shipyard complex will build commercial ships like very large cargo carriers (VLCCs), specialised cargo ships for liquid and gas transportation and cruise vessels. It will also have the capability to build defence vessels, offshore platforms and floating production-cum-storage facilities for the oil and gas sector.

The shipyard will also have facilities for refitting and re-engineering of commercial and defence vessels, and heavy engineering fabrication and components production for ship building purposes.

The shipyard complex will promote several ancillary units for manufacture of components and spares for this shipyard, and for exports. When it becomes operational, the shipyard will become a nucleus for the heavy engineering industry (for fabrication and component manufacturing), the release added.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.