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Tuesday, April 1, 2008

GAIL to sell entire prodn from Panna-Mukta

GAIL India, the country’s largest transporter and marketer of natural gas, today signed contracts for marketing the entire volume of gas produced from the Panna-Mukta and Tapti (PMT) fields.

B C Tripathi, director (marketing), GAIL, said: "We have signed contracts for selling the entire volume of PMT gas."

The right to market the entire 17 million cubic meters per day (mcmd) of gas produced from the fields would increase GAIL's marketing margin by Rs 100 crore annually while its transportation revenue would rise by Rs 450 crore annually.

The state-owned gas utility signed purchase contracts with the fields’ operators Reliance Industries (RIL), British Gas India and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC). It also entered into agreements with gas consumers including RIL and BG for selling gas at the government-approved price of $5.7 per million British thermal unit (mBtu).

RIL and BG had earlier refused to sign the contract unless they were given a share of the gas from the field to feed their requirements. With the signing of this contract, RIL would get 3.6 mcmd of gas from the PMT fields for its petrochemical plants, while BG would get 2.13 mcmd of gas which will be taken by the company’s subsidiary Gujarat Gas for supply to cities in Gujarat.

Around five mcmd of gas would be supplied to power and fertiliser plants, while GAIL would also use around 2.8 mcmd of gas to for extracting LPG.

GAIL earlier had the rights to market only 4.8 mcmd of PMT gas, while the joint venture partners were allowed to directly market 5.6 mcmd gas till March 2006. The government, last November, had allowed GAIL to market the entire volume of gas produced from the PMT fields.

While ONGC holds 40% stake in the gas fields, RIL and BG India hold 30% each.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.