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Friday, February 1, 2008

Automobile Jan Sales data

Maruti Jan sales up 4% at 68,107 units

Maruti Suzuki today reported a 4% increase in sales in January at 68,107 units when compared with 65,341 units sold in January 2007.

According to a release issued to the BSE today, domestic sales was up 2% at 63,459 units when compared with 62,248 units sold in January 2007.

Exports increased 50% to 4,648 units from 3,093 units in January 2007.

The company's volume in the domestic A3 segement (Esteem, Sx4, Baleno) increased 12% to 2,939 units, and 17% in the C segment (Omni, Versa) to 8,861 units, the release added.

TVS Motor Jan sales decline 23%

TVS Motor, the third largest two-wheeler company, today reported a 23% decline in January sales at 93,385 units when compared with 121,147 units sold in January 2007.

Motorcycle sales stood at 38,961 units as against 69,634 units sold in January 2007.

Exports moved up 86% to 13,108 units from 7,049 units in the corresponding period of the previous year.

GM India Jan sales up 46 %

General Motors India has registered a growth of 46% in sales in January 2008 by selling 5,517 units as compared to 3,776 units in the corresponding period last year.

The January 2008 sales comprise 1391 units of Chevrolet Tavera, 1174 units of Chevrolet Aveo, 217 units of Chevrolet Optra, 2639 units of Chevrolet Spark and 96 units of the recently launched Chevrolet Captiva.

P Balendran, vice president, GM India, said: "The consistent surge in monthly sales is a clear indication of the success of all our carlines and demonstrates the fact that our flagship brand Chevrolet has been well accepted by the market and is growing from strength to strength."

General Motors India clocked an annual growth of 68% with sales of 60,032 units in the calendar year 2007 as against 35,823 units during 2006.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.