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Monday, February 4, 2008

Emaar MGF to invest Rs15,000cr in hospitality

Realty firm Emaar MGF Land, currently in the process of raising up to Rs 6,457 crore through an IPO, is planning an investment of Rs 15,000 crore for its pan-India foray in the hospitality segment.

Emaar MGF Land, a joint venture between Emaar Properties PJSC of Dubai and domestic player MGF Development, intends to develop hotels across the value chain, covering the luxury, up-market, mid-market and budget segments, sources said.

Emaar MGF is planning to add about 26,000 keys over the next seven years with hospitality properties in multiple cities, sources added.

The current projects under development in the business and luxury categories are located in Delhi, Kolkata, Amritsar and Dehradun to be completed in fiscal 2009-2010.

These projects would add about 1,100 rooms over the next three years.

For the current project roll out, Emaar MGF Land has entered into an operating agreement and a memorandum of understanding with global hospitality giant Marriott Group to develop properties in Kolkata and Amritsar. The JW Marriot is one of the most luxurious & elegant brands of the Marriot Group.

Further, the company also has a management agreement with Intercontinental Hotel Group to develop hotels in Kolkata and Dehradun.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.