Projecting a consolidation in the Indian telecom market even after the entry of new players, mobile giant Vodafone today said that it would buy spectrum from the market in case it was not provided by the government.
"... If it is not possible to get spectrum from the government, we will have to buy it from the market though our first priority will be to get it from the government," Arun Sarin, CEO, Vodafone told reporters at GSM Mobile Congress.
In an obvious reference to buy spectrum from any of the new applicants, Sarin said, "buying spectrum will be very cheap."
When asked whether the valuation of buying spectrum will be as high as it had paid for acquiring Hutch in India, Sarin said, "no it will be very cheap... As we will not buy any brand, any customer base or any infrastructure. So it will be very cheap and there is no comparison between two kinds of valuation."
He said the company was eligible for allotment of additional spectrum from the government based on its existing subscriber base.
Sarin said there would be consolidation once new players come into the market.
Mobile tariffs in India are already very competitive and with the entry of new players, the competition would further increase, he added.
About 4-5 strong brands are already existing in the Indian market, even before the entry of those who have been given licences, Sarin said, adding that in the future it will not be easy for anyone to create a nationwide brand.
Asked about Vodafone's plans for Indian mobile market, he said, "Our first job is to focus on rural India... We have done it in China and results are extremely good ... If you give them good service, they are ready to pay."
On company's plans for third generation technology, Sarin said, "we are waiting for the government policy.
Understanding Short Term Trading
Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.
Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.
Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.
Types of Moving Averages
1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)
SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.
2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.
The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.
A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.
In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.
Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.
Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.
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