The government is expected to raise allocation to two key support schemes for the textile industry, the Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme (TUFS) and Scheme for Integrated Textiles Parks (SITP), in the coming Budget.
The move is aimed at helping textile companies to go ahead with their expansion plans, which were put on hold due to rupee appreciation.
The rupee has appreciated by over 12 per cent in the last one year. But since January, it has firmed at around Rs 39.66 against the US dollar, and is expected to strengthen in the 2008-09 fiscal.
In the coming Budget, the finance ministry is expected to allocate Rs 1,700 crore for TUFS and Rs 450 crore for SITP, which would be 86 per cent and 6 per cent higher than what was allocated in 2007-08.
However, the gross budgetary support (GBS) for the textiles ministry is likely to go up by a meagre 2 per cent over the total support of Rs 2,243 crore in 2007-08. While the ministry is learnt to have demanded Rs 3,367 crore for 2008-09, it might get around Rs 2,270 crore due to financial constraints.
Industry expert say that continuation of TUFS till March 2012 will help the industry to continue its expansion and modernisation plan and incentives, such as subvention on interest paid on pre- and post-shipment credit, and revision in drawback rates and Duty Entitlement Pass Book rates that will further help the sector.
“However, the scale of capex in 2008 could be lower on account of high financial leverage,” he said.
“Delay in TUFS disbursement has been a serious problem for the last one year and there is a huge backlog now. So, it is important that sufficient funds are allocated in order to avoid such delays,” said D K Nair, secretary general, Confederation of Indian Textile Industry.
Understanding Short Term Trading
Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.
Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.
Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.
Types of Moving Averages
1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)
SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.
2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.
The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.
A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.
In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.
Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.
Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.
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