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Friday, February 8, 2008

Top News - 08-Feb-2008


NTPC, Bharat Forge to float 49:51 JV

National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) today signed an Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Bharat Forge to promote a joint venture company.

According to a release issued by NTPC to the BSE today, the JV would have an equity participation of 49 : 51 by the company and Bharti Forge, respectively.

The JV will take up manufacture of castings, forgings, fittings and high pressure piping required for the power and other industries, Balance of Plant (BOP) equipment for the power sector etc.

Dr Reddy's partners SkyePharma for new drug

Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL), a Hyderabad-based pharmaceutical major, has entered into an agreement with British drug maker SkyePharma to undertake a feasibility study of a product utilising two of the latter's proprietary drug delivery systems.

According to an official release issued by the DRL to the BSE today, it will bear the costs of the study and SkyePharma will also receive an upfront payment. If the feasibility study is successful, full development activities will begin later this year.

Rahejas plan Rs 3000cr IT park in Orissa

Mumbai-based realty major Raheja group will be investing around Rs 3000 crore for the development of the first information technology (IT) park in Orissa.

Alongside, a 50 Mw power plant, cold storage in the public-private-partnership (PPP) mode and a hotel would also be set up by the group. The group also plans to enter the retail space and set up an IT development centre after surveying the potential.

The park would be christened Mindspace cum Techno-campus Park. The group already has such Mindspace cum techno-campus parks in Hyderabad, Mumbai and Ahmedabad.

A detailed presentation of the proposed IT Park was given to Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and senior IT officials of the state government today.

As per the presentation, in the first phase an incubation centre on 30-40 acres would be developed. The entire IT park would come up over 100 acres.

The plan envisages development of the park within the next 8-10 months, provided land is made available by the Orissa government in the next couple of months.

BHEL bags Rs 3,390cr UP power plant order

Power equipment maker Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) has secured a contract worth Rs 3,390 crore for setting up 2 units of 500 Mw each at Anpara D Thermal Power Station (TPS) in Uttar Pradesh.

The units, ordered by Uttar Pradesh Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam (UPRVUNL), are slated for commissioning in 2011-12.

BHEL's scope of work in the contract includes design, engineering, manufacture, supply, erection and commissioning of boiler turbine generator package along with associated auxiliaries, balance of plant and civil works.

BHEL has already commissioned over 10,000 Mw of power generating sets in the state, which include thermal, gas-based, nuclear and hydro units of various ratings.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.