The risk of Tata Motors, India’s biggest truckmaker, defaulting on its bonds rose to a record after the company sought to borrow $3 billion to fund the planned purchase of Ford Motor Co’s Jaguar and Land Rover units.
Credit-default swaps (CDS) on the Mumbai-based company rose 10 basis points to a record 503 basis points at 3:48 pm in Hong Kong, according to ABN Amro Holding prices. That means it costs $503,000 annually to protect $10 million of Tata Motors’ debt from default for five years.
Tata Motors’ five-year credit-default swaps have more than doubled and its share price fallen 12 per cent since Ford announced the automaker as the preferred bidder for Jaguar and Land Rover on January 3.
Investors are concerned that Tata may struggle to integrate the UK brands, while also taking on significant amounts of debt and pension liabilities.
“The market is not happy about the deal because there is no synergy in the short term and it’s a burden on Tata’s balance sheet,’’ said Ashutosh Goel, a Mumbai-based analyst at Edelweiss Capital. Still, “for the long term, Tata is doing the right thing’’.
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company’s ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements.
A decline indicates improvement in the perception of credit quality. Tata Motors plans to raise the 15-month loan from nine banks led by Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co, three people with direct knowledge of the deal said yesterday.
It will pay less than 2 percentage points more than the London interbank offered rate (Libor) as interest and fees for the loan, the people said. About $2.5 billion will fund the cost of the acquisition and the rest will be used for working capital, the people said.
The three-month Libor, a benchmark for corporate borrowing, was set at 3 per cent yesterday.
Tata Motors is also talking to Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, BNP Paribas, Calyon, ING Groep, Mizuho Financial Group, Standard Chartered and State Bank of India to arrange the loan, according to the people who declined to be identified because the information was not public.
Tata Motors gained 0.1 per cent to Rs 702.65 on the Bombay Stock Exchange yesterday. The market is shut for trading today due to a public holiday.
Understanding Short Term Trading
Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.
Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.
Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.
Types of Moving Averages
1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)
SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.
2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.
The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.
A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.
In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.
Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.
Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.
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