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Thursday, December 13, 2007

285 US dealers sign up to sell Scorpio

To invest $178 million in setting up sales and service outlets.

In a little over a year, Mahindra & Mahindra’s (M&M’s) all-Indian utility vehicle, Scorpio, will enter the quality-conscious US market, which is also the largest in the world with 15 million vehicles in annual sales.

The company already has firm orders for 45,000 units of Scorpio for the first year, which is more than the 40,000 it sold in India in the last financial year.

More importantly, 285 US dealers have signed up to sell the vehicle and are investing $178 million in setting up sales and service outlets.

Mahindra & Mahindra had spent $120 million on developing the Scorpio platform five years ago, and there are 140 Scorpio dealers.

The enthusiastic response to the vehicle in the US comes amid a clamour of protest by US dealers against selling Jaguar to an Indian company for the fear that it would erode the image and sustainability of the brand.

“The timing of M&M’s entry into the US is perfect. With the price of the fuel going up, Americans want to buy SUVs and trucks that are not too costly to operate,” John Perez, the chief executive of Alpharetta, Georgia-based Global Vehicles, which will be handling Scorpio sales in the US, told Business Standard over the phone.

Starting March 2009, three diesel variants of Scorpio will be sold in the US. “We already have 45,000 bookings for the first year. All of them are backed by letters of credit,” said Perez, adding that Scorpio would not be priced cheap. He hinted at a tag of $25,000.

Pawan Goenka, the president of the automotive division of M&M, said he was not surprised by the demand for Scorpio in the US, though he conceded that it had exceeded the company’s target.

The current annual capacity of 52,000 units of Scorpio in India will have to be expanded to meet the US demand.

“It could either be in Nasik or Chakan (near Pune). We have not decided that,” he said, adding that the company would spend $50 million on upgrading the vehicle to meet the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration requirement.

Source - Business Standard

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.