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Monday, December 17, 2007

Auto part investments to treble in 3 yrs

Companies plan to pump in Rs 30,000 crore to cash in on demand surge

Domestic auto component companies are investing Rs 30,000 crore to cash in on the automobile boom. Automobile capacity in the country will double from 2.2 million unit per annum to 4.4 million by 2010.

Sanjay Labroo, president, Automotive Component Manufacturers’ Association (ACMA), said: “The industry will invest Rs 30,000 crore in the next two years. Last year, we did a business of Rs 62,000 crore and this year we will do a business of 71,000 crore.”

Companies, which are jumping into the bandwagon, include MNCs. For instance, the world’s leading component company Bosch has committed an investment of Rs 2,650 crore through four subsidiaries in India. Funds will be used to set up manufacturing facilities for gasoline systems, electronic control units and ABS systems.

Delhi-based Sona Koyo, manufacturers of steering columns, axle assembly, propeller shaft, plans to invest Rs 400 crore, including Rs 200 crore to be spent in 18 months. The company caters to Toyota, Nissan, Suzuki and Renault.

The company forged a JV earlier this year with Japan-based JTEKT for making electronic power steering systems at an investment of Rs 150 crore. The facility is coming up in Haryana. The company has five other JVs with global players.

Surinder Kapoor, chairman, Sona Group, said, “We are in talks with international players. They are checking our facilities to evaluate the manufacturing and supply capacities.”

TACO (Tata Auto Systems), the auto component arm of the Tata group, is eyeing a a turnover of $1.75 billion by 2010 from $1 billion currently. TACO, which has 20 companies, has been growing at an exponential CAGR of 40 per cent in the last three years.

“Tata AutoComp would like to build technology and business process capabilities to be a leading global supplier to the automotive industry. Domestic growth will largely come from increase in the domestic automobile market, as well as exports of components from India,” said a company spokesperson.

Another world leader in the component making space is bearings major SKF, which is targeting 20 per cent growth to Rs 3,000 crore.

To cater to the demand for bearings, it will invest to Rs 500 crore to set up new facilities and enhance capacities.

Mahindra Systec, formerly Mahindra Systems and Automotive Technologies (MSAT), the auto component arm of the $4.5 billion Mahindra group, is targeting a revenue of $1 billion. The group achieved $800 million turnover last year. The unit is investing about Rs 750 crore in various group companies including, casting, forgings and stamping.

Source - Business Standard

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.