The shares of Industrial Finance Corporation of India (IFCI) plunged by 23.41 per cent on Thursday after the stake sale of 26 per cent to strategic investors collapsed.
Thursday’s decline was the biggest in a single day in the past 13 years, bleeding small investors and margin traders the most.
Several small investors had bought the IFCI shares at higher levels of Rs 100-plus, hoping that the stock would further run up to new highs following a turnaround in the company’s fortunes after the entry of strategic investors.
The stock closed at Rs 76.70 on Thursday against its previous close of Rs 100.15, forcing several brokerage houses to ask clients to pay the mark-to-market losses or wind up their positions at the counter in the derivatives segment.
The general expectation in the market was that strategic investors might be bidding close to Rs 140 or Rs 135, which tempted investors to buy the stock at Rs 100-plus levels.
On Tuesday’s stock price of Rs 100, the trader would have had to pay a 25 per cent margin on one market lot of 7,875 shares, which works out to around Rs 2.5 lakh.
Therefore, when the stock fell to Rs 77.05, nearly 80 per cent or over Rs 2 lakh of traders’ margin money got wiped out, said dealers.
According to the data available on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) website, the standing market-wide position is over six crore shares currently.
“If the stock does not bounce back to Rs 90 or Rs 95 in the next three trading sessions before the F&O expiry, it is then likely that the stock may see a further downside,” said a dealer.
In the cash segment, over 210 million shares were transacted on both BSE and NSE.
Understanding Short Term Trading
Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.
Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.
Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.
Types of Moving Averages
1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)
SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.
2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.
The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.
A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.
In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.
Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.
Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.
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