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Monday, December 17, 2007

Aurobindo to invest $1billion to enhance European presence

Hyderabad-based pharma company Aurobindo Pharma, which has plans to emerge as a billion dollar company by 2009-10, is enhancing its presence in Europe by investing $100 million in phases.

The company is likely to buy two pharma companies worth Euro 10 million each, open offices in 10 countries and establish a packaging, warehouse and manufacturing hub in Malta.

Besides Europe, Aurobindo may make strategic investments worth $10 million in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Its upcoming active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) manufacturing plant at Annapolis in Brazil will cost of $8 million.

“All this will be completed in a year’s time,” Aurobindo chairman, PV Ramprasad Reddy, said, adding that talks to buy two European companies were in advanced stages. Aurobindo is also holding talks with six companies in the GCC countries to finalise partnership deals.

The company may start commercial operations of two anti-diabetics products in the US by the second quarter of the next financial year. It already has a manufacturing unit in New Jersey.

With over 117 filings to its credit, the company has emerged as a leader in filing drug master files (DMF) for APIs in the US. The company has filed over 107 abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) in the US.

“Our operations are also picking up in South Africa, where our sales turnover is expected to touch $3 million this year,” Reddy said.

Aurobindo has been focussing on the formulation business for some time. Its Rs 1,000 crore investment in R&D and manufacturing infrastructure in the last four years has started yielding results. The company achieved formulation sales of Rs 697 crore in 2006-07 against Rs 274 crore in 2005-06 on a consolidated basis.

Aurobindo may post a consolidated turnover of Rs 2,500-2,700 crore in the current financial year against Rs 2,250 crore during 2006-07, according to Reddy.

Besides the overseas projects, Aurobindo is setting up a Rs 170 crore formulation unit in two phases in a special economic zone of the Andhra Pradesh Industrial Infrastructure Corporation near Hyderabad.

Aurobindo’s product portfolio is spread across six therapeutic areas.

Reddy said the company’s ARV (anti-retroviral) business was expected to grow 50 per cent, from $10 million to $15 million per month, next year. Being an integrated player, the company does not expect any significant growth in the API business due to captive consumption.

Source - Business Standard

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.