The petrochemical industry may see a phase of consolidation in the face of major capacity expansion coming up in West Asia, China and India, and an impending downturn in the industry in the next couple of years, according to analysts.
The industry saw its last slump in 2000-01. That was when India’s largest petrochemical company became larger by acquiring cash-strapped medium-sized companies such as Raymond Synthetics, of the Raymond group, JK Corporation’s Orissa Synthetics, and the RPG group’s India Polyfibres.
“Historically, the industry has been cyclical in nature, and we could see a downturn in 2008-09, which will last till 2013-14,” said Kumar Manish, associate director, KPMG, a global advisory firm. “It is likely to lead to another round of consolidation in the industry with the bigger companies buying out the medium-sized ones.”
Some of the medium-sized companies include Chemplast Sanmar, BASF, Century Textiles and Garware Polyester, among others.
“Smaller companies may prove interesting for the Chinese and West Asian companies as it will give them critical mass,” another Mumbai-based analyst said.
An official at GAIL, another prominent petrochemical company, said it was not yet looking at acquisitions, but at organic growth.
Large capacity for manufacturing petrochemicals, such as purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and polyester staple fibre (PSL), is being added in West Asia, where feedstock such as gas and naphtha are available, and in China and India, where the markets are large and growing.
“Right now margins are certainly above average,” Manish said. High margins are attracting people to set up small petrochemical manufacturing units. During the expected squeeze, margins could decline by as much as 100 per cent.
Haldia Petrochemicals, one of the four large petrochemical companies in the country, is putting off expanding its naphtha cracker plant.
Instead, it is planning to manufacture high-value products such as styrene and butadiene in the short to medium term, to boost its bottomline.
The country, currently, imports most of styrene and butadiene products, and manufacturing these domestically would help Haldia Petrochemicals tide over the impending downturn, Haldia Managing Director Swapan Bhowmik said in Kolkata on Monday.
Haldia Petrochemicals is also strategically located next to Indian Oil Corporation’s (IOC) refinery in the area. It can use feedstock such as naphtha for its plant.
“Only companies which have integrated refineries and petrochemicals units can optimise profits. Standalone smaller companies may not be able to pass on the adverse impact of slack demand to customers,” KPMG’s Manish said.
The government is attempting to integrate petrochemical units with refineries by promoting petroleum, chemicals and petrochemicals investment regions (PCPIRs) in the country. These regions are being planned as investment hubs for the industry.
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Thursday, December 27, 2007
Petrochem consolidations round the bend
Posted by Srivatsan at 8:56 AM
Labels: century textiles, chemplast sanmar, petrochem
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Understanding Short Term Trading
Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.
Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.
Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.
Types of Moving Averages
1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)
SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.
2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.
The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.
A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.
In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.
Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.
Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.
Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.
Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.
Types of Moving Averages
1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)
SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.
2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.
The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.
A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.
In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.
Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.
Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.
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