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Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Sail bets Rs 20,000 crore on West Bengal

State-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd (Sail) will invest Rs 20,000 crore in West Bengal, Union Steel Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said today. This is almost two-fifths of the Rs 53,000 crore spread planned by the country’s largest steel maker.

Giving a break-up, Paswan said the company will invest Rs 13,500 crore in the IISCO Steel Plant at Kulti (up from the original plan of Rs 9,600 crore), Rs 5,600 crore in the Durgapur Steel Plant and the balance in the Alloy Steel Plant (also at Durgapur).

This will raise Sail’s annual hot metal production from the current 14.6 million tonnes to 26 million tonnes.

Paswan said this was the largest investment being made by Sail in any state and it could put more money into West Bengal in the months to come.

The announcement came even as violent protests have happened at Nandigram against land acquisition for a special economic zone planned by Indonesia’s Salim group. Protests had also taken place against Tata Motors’ small car facility at Singur and the matter is in the courts.

Addressing a large gathering at the inauguration of the Sail Growth Works (formerly Kulti Works), Paswan said an expert committee would determine the total investment and growth plan for the unit-shut since 2003, while the foundry works would commence operations over the next three months.

Paswan also announced that the Centre was keen on reviving the National Iron and Steel Company, owned by the West Bengal government and closed for the last six years.

Paswan said he had asked the West Bengal government to waive the loans and liabilities to the company so that it could be started on a clean slate. NISCO could be merged into Sail.

The occasion was attended by Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Information and Broadcasting Minister Priya Ranjan Das Munshi, even as West Bengal Commerce and Industry Minister Nirupam Sen gave it a miss.

However, Mukherjee batted for the state government and spoke in favour of land acquisition for industrialisation.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.