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Saturday, December 8, 2007

Indiabulls buys Piramyd Retail

Indiabulls Wholesale Services, the retail arm of Indiabulls Real Estate, has acquired Piramyd Retail, a company owned by the Ashok Piramal Group which runs 35 neighbourhood retail stores and seven lifestyle stores.

Indiabulls Wholesale has acquired 63.92 per cent stake in Piramyd Retail at an enterprise value of around Rs 208 crore, said sources close to the deal. It will be making an open offer over the weekend to acquire an additional 20 per cent of the fully diluted paid-up capital of Piramyd Retail, at Rs 74.73 per share. Thus, it would shell out Rs 174.55 crore for 84 per cent stake in the company.

Piramyd runs a lifestyle retail (Piramyd Megastore) and convenience store chain (Trumart) with 42 stores spread over 10 lakh square foot of retail space in states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh.

Indiabulls Wholesale, which is setting up 30 hypermarkets in as many tier-II cities at a cost of Rs 1,500 crore, plans to expand Piramyd’s existing network of 42 stores to over 150 stores by the end of next year. With this acquisition, Indiabulls will have a presence across different formats –hypermarkets, lifestyle and convenience store formats. The acquisition provides Indiabulls 1,300 trained people and 10 lakh square foot of prime retail space.

Pyramid Retail had reported a net loss of Rs 47.81 crore on gross sales of Rs 162.01 crore, taking up its accumulated losses to Rs 55.28 crore. Retailers have been bogged down by high real estate prices and supply chain issues.

Indiabulls Real Estate is developing commercial properties in Lower Parel in Mumbai and recently announced the launch of Indiabulls Centre One, its first building offering 1.4 million square feet for lease. It is also developing over 50,000 residential apartments across India and has over 4000 acres of land bank which it intends to use for commercial and residential development.


Source - Business Standard

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.