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Monday, December 31, 2007

Cipla maintains No.1 position in Indian mkt

Tops pharma rankings with 5.42% market share, a head of Ranbaxy and GSK.

Cipla Laboratories continues to be the largest pharmaceutical company in the domestic market.

Cipla has topped the ORG-IMS rankings for the month of November with a market share of 5.42 per cent and sales of Rs 146.32 crore, edging out Ranbaxy which stood at second position with 5.09 per cent market share and Rs 137.49 crore sales.

In October, Cipla topped with Rs 152.04 crore sales and a market share of 5.23 per cent, ahead of Ranbaxy, which garnered Rs 148.40 crore sales and 5.11 per cent market share, said sources.

Cipla overtook Ranbaxy and GlaxoSmithKline India (GSK) to become the largest pharmaceutical company in the domestic market for the first time in May 2007.

While GSK has maintained its number three position in November, Zydus Cadila (fourth), Alkem Laboratories (fifth) and Sun Pharma (sixth) have moved one rank up from October.

Nicholas Piramal, which faced raw material shortages for its largest selling codiene based formulations, like Phensydyl, in recent months, slipped three positions to number seven in November.

ORG-IMS, the largest market intelligence company in India focusing on the healthcare sector, tracks sales of Indian pharmas on a monthly basis, through over 3,000 stockists and 6,000 doctors.

“Indian companies are increasing their share in the domestic market mainly due to increased number of high value new introductions, though the number of new introductions have reduced recently,” Shailesh Gadre, managing director, ORG-IMS, said in an interview last week.

Ranbaxy’s growth has been largely driven by new introductions such as Volix, an anti-diabetes drug launched in January, Oframax-Forte and anti-asthmatic drug Synasma, which it in-licensed from Eurodrug Laboratories.

Ranbaxy’s antibiotic Mox (amoxyllin), which was not among the top ten brands a year ago, has grown to become the fourth largest brand in the domestic market with monthly sales at Rs 9.8 crore in November, sources said.

Cipla’s growth was powered by positive growth in their existing portfolio, especially its respiratory products.

However, GSK has lost market share mainly in its main portfolios such as anti- infectives, dermatologicals and pain management drugs which grew slower than the market for these products, ORG-IMS said.

ORG-IMS named Alkem Laboratories as the only company among the top ten for which both older products (10 per cent) and new introductions (12 per cent) have contributed significantly to value growth.

“Our growth in the domestic market is mainly due to the growth of our anti-infective Taxim and other brands such as Taximo, Clavem, A to Z and Gemcal,” explained Vinod Dua, head, domestic business of Alkem Laboratories.

Alkem’s Taxim is now the third largest brand in the domestic market with sales of Rs 10.3 crore, behind Pfizer’s cough syrup Corex (Rs 15.2 crore) and Novartis India’s pain killer Voveron (Rs 11.6 crore).

Posted by Srivatsan at 7:25 PM

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.