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Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Amsterdam to power Suzlon growth

Company shifts several key executives to management centre in the Netherlands.

Suzlon Energy, India’s largest wind turbine maker, is in the process of relocating key management executives to the company’s Group Management Centre in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

The company, now among the top-five wind turbine manufacturers in the world, may also seek to list on leading international stock exchanges in a couple of years.

“While our corporate headquarters will remain in Pune, our global business will span out from Amsterdam since that offers us locational and operational advantages in the context of the nature of our business,” said Tulsi R Tanti, chairman and managing director, Suzlon Energy.

Suzlon has about 25 top executives working from its Amsterdam office. Its international marketing operations are coordinated from Aarhus, Denmark.

Suzlon acquired Hansen Transmissions International – the Belgium-based gear box manufacturer – for Rs 2,500 crore in May 2006, and bought German wind turbine manufacturer REpower for Rs 7,314 crore a year later to access technologies and talent as a part of its global foray.

“In India, we are the largest player and have the best talent and facilities available here. Hansen and REpower were two of the best assets available for growth outside India. Europe, which generates half of the total global wind power, holds potential for our growth,” said Tanti.

However, he ruled out acquisitions in the near future.

Proximity to manufacturing, research and development (R&D) facilities of Hansen and REpower is one reason for moving the main operations to Amsterdam, Tanti explained.

Suzlon has international orders amounting to Rs 14,307 crore (for 2916 mw), as compared with orders totalling Rs 2,404 crore (441 mw) from the domestic market.

Its revenues from India contribute 46 per cent of its total turnover, but this is expected to shrink to about 20 per cent in three years in the context of the pace of the company’s global business. Suzlon has targeted 40 per cent of its revenues from Europe, which now accounts for half the total wind energy installed in the world.

Tanti said the company also planned to list on major international stock exchanges, but had not yet fixed a timeframe for this.

“We will list Suzlon on major bourses at an appropriate time, but we have not decided where and when,” he said.

He informed that the R&D team at REpower had developed 6 mw offshore wind turbines, the first of its kind.

The largest offshore wind turbines today are of 5 mw capacity and cost over Rs 50 crore a unit. REpower plans to manufacture 300 units of 5 mw and 6 mw turbines in three years.

Suzlon’s gearbox R&D unit is located in Belgium, turbine development in India and Germany, and aerodynamics research in the Netherlands. Its manufacturing facilities are located in Belgium, China and the US.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.