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Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Big Bazaar targets Rs 8,000 cr turnover

Big Bazaar, the largest retail chain of Future Group, is eyeing a turnover of Rs 8,000 crore by the next financial year.

The company hopes to achieve this mark by mutliplying the number of stores and implementing cost-cutting measures.

Speaking on the sidelines of Images Fashion Forum in Mumbai, Kishore Biyani, CEO, Future Group, said, “We want to introduce new value culture, manage operating costs better and boost profitability of Big Bazaar. Hence, we have hived off the business. However, to fund our expansion, we are not looking at listing Big Bazaar.”

Recently, Pantaloon Retail, the group’s listed entity, decided to hive off four business divisions, including Big Bazaar and Food Bazaar, into separate companies.

The company is now looking at openining a total of 300 Big Bazaar stores and has introduced the neighbourhood concept of retail, opening stores in residential areas. It will also introduce new business segments such as health and wellness in its stores.

Biyani further stated that Big Bazaar would focus on ‘kanjussi culture’, a term he used to explain the company’s focus on identifying areas to cut costs.

“The organisation has adopted a new philosophy “garv se kaho hum kanjus hain,” he said, explaining the idea.

The concept focuses on cutting intermediate layers and passing the benefit to customers. Big Bazaar is estimated to end this financial year with a turnover of Rs 4,000 crore and expects to double it over the next year.

The company was also looking to create more buying occasions, he said. For example, on Republic Day, Big Bazaar achieved a sales of Rs 240 crore compared with Rs 150 crore in the previous year.

“There is a need to drive consumption by creating newer buying occasions because traditional festivals can no longer remain the sole purchase drivers,” he said.

Three years ago Big Bazaar introduced discount sales on the Republic Day, which was well received by the country’s youth. For instance, this year, Big Bazaar sold 1,38,000 pairs of jeans and 38,000 cell phones during the Republic Day offer.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.