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Saturday, January 26, 2008

Lupin plans to buy mid-sized firm in US

Says it's looking for a branded formulation company with $100 mn turnover for acquisition.

Mumbai-based pharmaceutical major Lupin is planning to acquire a mid-sized branded formulation company in the US.

“We are growing in branded formulation business in the US. Now, we are trying to acquire a branded formulation company with a turnover of $100 million,” said Desh Bandhu Gupta, chairman, Lupin.

He said the company was identifying the targets and talks were on with many players. Last year, Lupin acquired Kyowa Pharmaceuticals, one of the top ten generics companies in Japan, and Rubamin Laboratories of Baroda.

Lupin had terminated its marketing contracts with Cornerstone Biopharma of the US for co-development of an anti-infective and with Chester Valley Pharmaceuticals to promote its drugs to paediatricians.

Lupin was one of the first pharmaceutical companies from India to hit the US market with own branded generic drugs. Lupin’s Suprax (cefixime), a cephalosporin antibiotic paediatric suspension, is already a major brand in the US.

Lupin Pharmaceutical, its US subsidiary, sells drug directly to paediatricians. The company also markets two line extensions of Suprax in the US.

Launched in 2004, the drug currently generates over 8500 prescriptions per week in peak season, with 73 per cent growth in sales in 2006-07. The paediatric anti-infective market in the US is valued $ 625 million, as per IMS data, a health care market research agency.

Dr Gupta said most of the generics products launched by Lupin in the US are among the top three selling drugs in their respective categories. Lisinopril, a hypertension drug, is a market leader in the US in its category.

The Rs 2000 crore plus Lupin has a pipeline of over 50 generic products for the US market, mainly niche cephalosporin anti-infection drugs. The US and Europe alone contributed Rs 331 crore to the turnover of 2007-08.

DB Gupta said the company would focus on developing more intellectual property rights on new drugs and drug delivery systems.

Lupin’s advance markets formulations business comprising the US and Europe clocked in Rs 229.6 crore, with a growth of 144% in the third quarter ended December of 2007-08.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.