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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

BSNL plans mega-IPO of Rs 40,000 crore

The issue is awaiting government clearance.

State-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) is preparing for the country’s largest initial public offering (IPO) of around $10 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) slated sometime next year.

The issue has been discussed by the board and is awaiting government clearance.

The plan is to divest 10 per cent through the IPO, which values India's largest telecom company at $100 billion (Rs 400,000 crore), which is larger than the combined market capitalisation of Bharti Airtel at $46 billion (Rs 183,283 crore) and Reliance Communications (RCom) at $41 billion (Rs 163,683 crore), respectively the second- and third- largest telecom companies.

The announcement comes a day before the $3 billion (Rs 11,500 crore) IPO by Reliance Power, owned by the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, the largest initial share offering to date.

The plan that it might go public was announced by Communications Minister A Raja on the sidelines of a press conference at which BSNL announced an insurance cover for 33.7 million of its subscribers.

Added BSNL's Director (Finance) S D Saxena, "DoT asked the board about an IPO and we have given our views . Our main aim for the IPO is to benchmark the company against others. The money will be used for expansion.”

Saxena said while the process might begin in two to three months, the issue would probably open a year down the line, subject to government approval.

The company's expansion plans were delayed following a controversy over an order for 45 million GSM mobile lines under former Communications Minister Dayanidhi Maran, who was replaced by A Raja last year.

Objections by equipment suppliers on the way the contract was awarded prompted Raja to reduce the order size to 22.5 million GSM lines only for second-generation (2G) services, which was awarded to Swedish group Ericsson.

BSNL is a pan-Indian telecom service provider, except for Mumbai and Delhi which is serviced by state-owned MTNL.

The company's 2006-07 revenue was Rs 39,715 crore and net profit Rs 7,805 crore. It has over 65.3 million customers, in both fixed-line and wireless subscribers.

Bharti Airtel has over 50 million subscribers, mostly in GSM mobile services. RCom has 40 million subscribers, mostly in CDMA mobile services.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.