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Thursday, January 31, 2008

Results Update - 31/01/2008 - Part 1

National Fertilizers Q3 net up 28%

National Fertilizers today announced a 28.42% rise in net profit at Rs 47.03 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 when compared with Rs 36.62 crore in Q3FY07.

According to a release to the Bombay Stock Exchange, the company's total income increased to Rs 1,179.87 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 from Rs 1,092.33 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2006

Gitanjali Gems Q3 PAT up 62%

Gitanjali Gems, with interests in diamond and jewellery, retail, infrastructure and lifestyle businesses has posted a 61% rise in net profit at Rs 50.5 crore for the quarter ended 31st December 2007 when compared with Rs 31.3 crore in the same quarter of previous year.

Net revenues were up by 56.7% to Rs 1252. crore from Rs 7,99.5 crore in the same quarter of 2006. Earning per share increased to Rs 6.15 from Rs 4.71.

For the nine months ended 31st December 2007, proft after tax (PAT) increased 62.4% to Rs 1,27.3 crore from Rs 78.4 crore in the same quarter of the previous year.

Diluted EPS improved to Rs 15.98 as compared to Rs 12.74 in the same quarter of the previous year.

The net revenues improved by 51.6% to Rs 33,51.29 crore from Rs 22,11.2 crore of 2006.

The company has bought 100% stake in Brightest Circle Jewellery (BCJPL) and acquired ‘Nakshatra Brand’. The acquisition gives Gitanjali the sole rights over Nakshatra as well as a 100% stake in BCJPL which is now a fully-owned subsidiary. Nakshatra is expected to yield sales of approximately Rs 10 billion over the next 5 years. Gitanjali has also raised $180 million through the issue of Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) at $9.67 per GDR.

The proceeds are to be utilized for expanding the company's new and existing businesses, investing in the company's subsidiaries, both in India and abroad, and to augment funds to meet the working capital requirements. Each GDR represents one equity share of the company at a nominal value of Rs. 10 each.

Mehul Choksi, chairman, Gitanjali Gems, said, "Given the multiple growth initiatives, and a model that is shaping up to be both highly competitive and profitable, we remain very enthusiastic about our outlook for the coming years."

CESC Q3 net up 52% at Rs 93cr

CESC, the flagship company of RPG Enterprises, has reported a 52.4% rise in its standalone net profit at Rs 93 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as against Rs 61 crore posted in the corresponding period last year.

The company’s total income for the same period rose from Rs 615 crore to Rs 703 crore, thereby clocking a growth of 14.3%.

United Phosphorus Q3 net at Rs 49cr

United Phosphorus today announced profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 48.55 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 when compared with Rs 35.68 crore in Q3FY07.

According to a release to the Bombay Stock Exchange, the company's total income increased to Rs 809.41 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 from Rs 483.96 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2006.

The company, on a standalone basis, reported a net profit of Rs 7.08 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 as against Rs 49.10 crore in Q3FY07.

The company's total income increased to Rs 426.15 crore for the quarter ed December 31, 2007 from Rs 386.57 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2006.

The company said that in view of the acquisition of Cerexagri Group of Companies during the March 07 quarter, the current quarterly figures were not comparable with those of corresponding period in the
previous year.

Posted by Srivatsan at 6:11 AM

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.