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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Peninsula inks Rs 1,200 cr deal with Essar

To sell and lease premises at its upcoming IT park in Mumbai.

Ashok Piramal Group company Peninsula Land has inked a property deal worth Rs 1,200 crore with Essar Realty Holdings, the realty arm of the Essar Group, to sell and lease premises at its upcoming IT park named Peninsula Technopark on LBS Marg in Kurla. The deal was signed recently, according to sources.

The IT park, to be developed on the land owned by Swan Mills and jointly developed by Peninsula and Swan, has approximately 1 million sq feet of space and houses four buildings. The project is expected to be completed in two years.

Peninsula sold two buildings with a total space of 7 lakh sq feet at Rs 15,000 per sq feet, raising nearly Rs 1,050 crore and will rent a building of 1.58 lakh sq feet at Rs 150 per sq feet, thus making another Rs 150 crore.

The revenues from the sale/lease of the fourth building will go towards the repayment of debt raised by Peninsula-Swan JV for developing the land, sources said.

Essar is expected to partly utilise this property for the use of the group companies. Currently, Essar’s offices are spread across Mumbai besides Essar House. It plans to consolidate operations in one place in order to save on cost, sources added.

“We were talking to Essar for quite some time. We signed the deal recently after agreeing the terms and conditions acceptable to both of us,” company sources said.

Recently, in the highest property deal in the country, Mumbai-based property developer Wadhwa group won the bid to develop a 16,521 sq metre plot auctioned by the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA), for Rs 831 crore, at a price of Rs 45,315 per square foot.

Though the property is located only one kilometre away from the Bandra Kurla Complex, property consultants believe that the Rs 15,000 per sq feet that Essar is paying is justified, since the prevailing rates in the area are around Rs 15,000-20,000. Also, Peninsula could not sell the property to anybody other than a IT/TeS company, sources added.

According to sources, Peninsula is on a fund raising drive to develop nearly 20 million sq ft of land under various stages of development across residential, commercial and retail spaces.

Prior to the Essar deal, Peninsula sold 5,75 000 sq ft of office space to Alok Industries for Rs 1,075 crore at its upcoming office complex in Dawn Mills property in Lower Parel.

Peninsula is also setting up a Rs 700 crore joint venture with global investment major Lehman Brothers to invest in Peninsula’s real estate projects.

While Lehman will invest Rs 500 crore and hold 75 per cent in the JV, Peninsula Land will subscribe to the remaining equity at an investment of Rs 200 crore.

Recently, Peninsula also sold 10 per cent stake in the company to foreign investors such as Franklin Templeton, HSBC, ABN Amro for Rs 525 crore.

Enthused with the reports, the company’s stock closed at Rs 153.75, up by over nine per cent over Friday’s close of Rs 140.95 and the stock has gone up over 4 per cent in the last month since December 14, 2007.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.