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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Peninsula sold two buildings with a total space of 7 lakh sq feet at Rs 15,000 per sq feet, raising nearly Rs 1,050 crore and will rent a building of

ICICI Bank, the country’s biggest private lender, expects overseas business to account for at least one-fourth of its balance sheet in 2008 and is targeting a place among the world’s top 10 banks within five years.

“If there ever be an Ivy League of global banks, I believe, in 5-10 years, we have to have a few banks from China and a few from India in that league,” ICICI Bank Managing Director and CEO K V Kamath said.

“The target is that we will try to do it in less than five years. China has done it and their three banks are in the top 10. Three years ago, none of us would have given them any change of getting there,” he said.

While attributing the current position of Chinese banks to the economic uptrend that started there 10 years ago, he said “within six years, as an Indian bank, we should also enjoy similar change in attributes”.

Kamath said he did not see slackening of the India growth story for another 15 years and if the GDP grows at 10-11 per cent, banks and financial services sector should grow at 30 per cent every year.

“If you look at that possibility, you are really looking at doubling your size every three years. Then in six years, it should be a size where most Chinese banks are today — in the top 10,” said the head of India’s most valued bank.

ICICI Bank’s Joint MD and Chief Financial Officer Chanda Kochhar said the bank was already India’s biggest in terms of overseas business and was looking at a contribution of at least 25 per cent from its international business in 2008.

Currently, global assets account for 22-23 per cent of its balance sheet, Kamath said.

Talking about the bank’s international expansion plans, Kochhar said after getting a licence in the US, it was not looking at merely foraying into other countries. “In each of the 18 countries we are present, we have a lot of deepening and widening to do. This can happen in many ways. For some it can be expanding the role of the branches,” she said.

“Our overseas growth would be driven around three platforms — Indian retail customers, Indian corporate customers and our niche cost-competitive areas... As we get into the next year, our international side of balance sheet would be about 25 per cent of the total.”

With more than $19 billion of overseas assets, ICICI is the largest international bank in India, she said. ICICI Bank played a role in 88 per cent of total number of outbound merger and acquisition deals by Indian companies during 2007, while in terms of value of these deals, the share was 65 per cent, she said. The involvement was largest in terms of value and second-largest in terms of volume.

Indian companies would invest up to $700 billion over the next few years. While a major part of it would come from their own internal accruals equity issue, a large portion would be through borrowings in local and foreign markets.

“We saw this as a coming opportunity two years ago and we calibrated our skills to be able to take large market share in this business. We have strengthened our investment banking capability and also international capability, so that we can not only give them loans but also syndicate a large part of loans for Indian corporates,” Kochhar said.

ICICI Bank currently ranks as a leading arranger of foreign currency loans for India Inc. This was an area dominated by foreign banks till some time ago, Kochhar noted.

She said in India also ICICI Bank was looking to have a role in 25 per cent of the investment pipeline worth about $500 billion likely to come from the corporates in the next three-four years.

“Our current balance sheet is over $100 billion and we are talking of a little over doubling the balance sheet in the next three-four years,” she said.

Kamath said 100 per cent growth was not the way to go for banking business, but even at 30 per cent growth the size would double every three years. There were also inorganic opportunities, he added.

When asked which other banks from India he expected in the global top 10, Kamath hinted at the country’s biggest lender State Bank of India. “At least one large government bank is clearly capable of entering into that league,” he said.

“In China also, it is the government banks that have got into that league... I think any other bank will take time because I do not see the scaling-up that is required being done as yet elsewhere,” he noted.

“Ten years down the lane, an Indian bank would have to be there. Our endeavour is to see how much quicker we would achieve that... One thing is sure that an Indian bank would reach that Ivy League,” Kamath said.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.