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Monday, January 28, 2008

Tatas take a look at Jaguar's new models

According to a media report, the British luxury car maker Jaguar has shown its new models and the planned product cycle to its probable new parent company, Tata Motors.

Tata Motors was named earlier this month as the preferred bidder by the US car giant Ford for the sale of its two British luxury brands, Jaguar and Land Rover, after evaluating interests by two other suitors -- India's Mahindra and Mahindra and private equity firm OneEquity.

"We have shown Tata our new model lines and the planned product cycle," Ian Callum, director (design), Ford Motor Company, who is responsible for the Jaguar's new XF and XK model ranges, told Financial Times.

The Tata group company is currently holding advanced-level talks for buying Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford and a final decision is expected to be announced by the end of February.

"The two national cultures (Jaguar and Land Rover) appear to fit together very well and Tata is being very respectful about what we are doing," Callum told the financial daily. However, he stopped short of acknowledging Tata's purchase of Jaguar and Land Rover for an estimated $2 billion.

The executive told the newspaper that Jaguar's management was "entirely relaxed" about the prospect of Tatas taking over the carmaker. The daily noted that Ian Cullum believed the possible takeover would allow unfettered development for Jaguar.

Tatas have pipped Indian automaker Mahindra and Mahindra as well as US-based private equity firm OneEquity, led by former Ford CEO Jacques Nasser, to attain the preferred status to hold advanced discussions for a final deal.

The Tatas, as owners of Anglo-Dutch steelmaker Corus, are already one of the top suppliers for Jaguar and Land Rover.

According to the Financial Times, Ian Cullum said there had been frequent tensions in the relationship between Jaguar and Ford, following the purchase by the latter in 1989. Ford had bought Jaguar for about $1.4 billion.

"He disclosed that, in spite of Jaguar management denials at the time, the X-Type small Jaguar -- sales of which have fallen far below expectations -- was essentially designed in Detroit and presented as close to a fait accompli to reluctant designers and engineers at Jaguars Whitley design centre, near the Midlands city of Coventry," the report said..

The report pointed out that many of the problems associated with Jaguar cars, which have persistently failed to attract enough buyers and its descent into losses that hit around $600 million several years ago, lay within Jaguar itself.

It had failed to "move on" and keep pace with its major rivals, Ian Cullum added.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.