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Thursday, January 31, 2008

Wockhardt cuts IPO price band on market woes

The volatility in the Indian stock market has forced Wockhardt Hospitals to revise the price band to Rs 225 (20 per cent at the lower end) and Rs 260 (16 per cent at the upper end) per equity share (from Rs 280 to Rs 310) for its initial public offering (IPO) of 25.09 million equity shares of Rs 10 each for cash at a price determined through a 100 per cent book-building process.

The issue opens on January 31 and closes on February 5.

The Emaar-MGF management, on the other hand, has decided to stick to its price band of Rs 610-690 for 10.26 million shares.

The issue will open on February 1. The IRB Infrastructure Developers issue of 51.06 million equity shares (which opens tomorrow) has a price band of Rs 185 to Rs 220.

The offer comprises a net issue to the public of 24.59 million equity shares of Rs 10 each (the net issue) and a reservation of up to 500,000 equity shares for subscription by eligible employees.

The issue will comprise 24.06 per cent of the post-issue paid-up equity share capital of the company.

The proposed IPO of Wockhardt Hospitals has been assigned an IPO grade of 4 out of 5 by rating agency Fitch Ratings India, indicating above-average fundamentals.

Wockhardt Hospitals intends to utilise the proceeds from the issue to meet the cost of development and construction of greenfield and brownfield hospitals of the company, pre-pay some of the short-term loans and to meet general corporate expenses.

The equity shares are proposed to be listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.