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Monday, January 14, 2008

Global pharma seeks cancer drug patents

The objections by Indian pharma companies to Swiss drug maker Novartis seeking a product patent for its Glivec blood cancer medicine has not deterred other global drug firms from applying for patents in this drug category in India.

At least five multinational pharma companies - Astra Zeneca, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithkline, Bayer and Bristol Myers Squibb - are known to have filed patent applications with various patent offices in India for about six new generation cancer drugs.

These are in the same class as the chronic myeloid leukaemia (a form of blood cancer) drug Glivec by Novartis.

Novartis has also filed a patent application for Tasigna (nilotinib monohydrate), a follow up drug for patients who are resistant or tolerant to Glivec.

 Pending list
Applications pending with patent offices are one for Sutent (sunitinab malate) by Pfizer for the treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma or kidney cancer, three for Tykerb (Lapatinib Ditosylate), GSK’s breast cancer drug and its salts, another for Sprycel (dasatinib), a blood cancer drug by Bristol-Myer Squibb and Nexavar (sorafenib tosylate) from Bayer for the treatment of kidney cancer.

All are from the class of Tyrosene Kinase inhibitors, an important group of molecular target agents for the treatment of various cancers.

Indian generic companies, patient groups and healthcare non-governmental organisations (NGO) had also voiced their opposition to two more drugs in this class, that is Iressa (gefitinab) from Astra Zeneca and Tarceva (Erlotinib) from Roche, both used in the treatment of small cell lung cancer. They are opposed to the grant of patents for cancer drugs in the fear that this may allow global pharmas to sell these essential drugs at unaffordable prices and block the entry of cheaper copycat generics.

 Some worries
“These drugs are yet to come under the radar of Indian generic companies and NGOs as they are new drugs that have been approved recently by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). I am not aware of any opposition against any of these applications so far,” said Varun Chonkar, a patent expert who has gathered information on these patents.

Pfizer’s Sutent, which got US approval last year, has a mail-box patent application pending with the Delhi patent office. A few weeks ago, the safety and efficacy of this drug was questioned in an article in the Lancet, a renowned medical journal.

Novartis filed a patent application for Tasigna with the Chennai patent office in 2004. The drug was approved by the US FDA in October last year.

Chonkar informed that the drug was 50 times potent than Glivec and a patent for this drug could compensate for the denial of patent protection for Glivec.

Novartis is also facing opposition over the alpha crystalline form of Glivec, though the company has not yet launched a drug of this version.

 High cost
GSK’s oldest patent application, for Tykerb, is pending with the Kolkata patent office since 1997. Two more patent applications by the company for Lapatinib species and salt are also pending approval. Tykerb was approved in the US in March last year. This breast cancer drug is expected to earn the company $890 million (about Rs 3,500 crore) globally by 2010.

A one-month course of the medicine costs about $2,900 (more than Rs 1 lakh).

A patent application by Bayers is pending with the Mumbai Patent Office. Details on Bristol-Myers’ Sprycel were not immediately available.

Posted by Srivatsan at 9:53 AM

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.