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Saturday, January 5, 2008

Jaiprakash Power plans $1 bn IPO

Hires Deutsche Bank AG and Enam Financial Consultants to sell shares for the first time.

Jaiprakash Power Venture Ltd, a unit of India’s biggest builder of dams, has hired Deutsche Bank AG and Enam Financial Consultants Ltd to sell shares for the first time, three people familiar with the deal said.

ICICI Securities Ltd, JM Financial Ltd, JPMorgan Chase & Co and SSKI Securities Ltd will also arrange the sale that may raise more than $1 billion (about Rs 4,000 crore) , the people said, requesting anonymity before a formal announcement.

“We have hired bankers for the share sale,” said Sunita Joshi, executive general manager at parent Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. She declined to elaborate.

Executive Chairman Manoj Gaur in October said the group will raise funds to boost electricity generation in line with a government plan to double power investment in five years to plug a shortfall.

Jaiprakash joins JSW Energy Ltd and Reliance Power Ltd in planning $5 billion of power IPOs this week, more than half the record total raised by all Indian companies in 2007.

JSW Energy, a unit of the `JSW Group, plans to dilute less than 20 per cent of its capital in an issue that could raise Rs 3000-4000 crore ($760 million-$1 billion), according to a banking source close to the deal. The company is expected to file initial documents with the market regulator in a couple of weeks.

Reliance Power could raise close to Rs 12,000 crore ($3 billion) in the country’s biggest initial public offer which opens January 15. Reliance Power, 50 per cent owned by power producer Reliance Energy Ltd, is part of Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG), which owns the rest through other group companies.

“There’s a huge demand-supply gap in the power sector which offers good growth opportunity,” said R Rajagopal, chief investment officer at DBS Chola Mutual Fund, which has the equivalent of $1 billion in assets. “There’s also efforts by the government to boost power production.”

Companies in all sectors raised $8.5 billion in IPOs last year, as the biggest rise in India’s Sensitive Index in four years spurred companies to raise funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

India’s government has set a target to add 78,577 mw generation capacity in the five-year development plan ending March 2012, from 132,330 mw at the end of March 2007, according to the Central Electricity Authority.

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.