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Friday, January 11, 2008

Jewellery firms eye global mart

To launch diamond-studded handbags, cellphones, watches.

Jewellery firm Shrenuj & Company is in talks with European designers to introduce its high-end handbags under the luxury jewellery brand Arisia.

Pranava Bhargava, group general manager (marketing), said, “ We are in talks with leading European design houses for developing watches and handbags. The company might take the joint venture mode or co-branding initiatives after evaluating the value propositions.”

The Rs 900 crore Shrenuj acquired Diamond Trading Corporation’s 50 per cent stake in Arisia Jewellery, a company promoting the solitaire diamond jewellery brand Arisia. It is focusing on the luxury market with plans to launch diamond studded handbags, watches and mobile phones under the Arisia brand.

Bhargava said the entry in West Asia is a natural extension due to the presence of Indian diaspora. BRIC nations — Brazil, Russia, India and Chine — are emerging as lucrative markets.

Shrenuj will make the Chinese debut with Joliesse, a Hong Kong-based jewellery chain, which it acquired in 2003. It plans to open two stores in China and 18 outlets in Hong Kong in the next two years. Going forward, the company expects one-third of its revenues to come from the jewellery branding and retailing.

Asitava Sen, vice-president, retail and consumer goods of Technopak Advisors (a consulting firm), said, “ There is an opportunity to take Indian jewellery brands globally from the ethnic point of view. Indian jewellery have very niche designs and skill craftsmanship.”

He added managing other products such as shoes, belts and wallets may be a challenge as they are well accepted as western designs.

Gitanjali Gems is also planning to extend its recently acquired premium jewellery brand Nakshatra into other lifestyle products. The Indian companies seems to be readying for bigger play in the luxury and premium lifestyle space, dominated by international labels such as Gucci and LVMH.

Anuj Rakyan, vice-president, Gitanjali Gems (jewellery division), said, “ Nakashtra will be extended into other categories such as handbags, watches and cosmetics. We intend to position Nakashtra to the brands such as Gucci and LVMH.”

Gitanjali estimates Nakshatra to garner sales revenues worth Rs 1000 crore in the next five years. Apart from brand extensions, Indian jewellery companies are also eyeing their potential in the overseas market. Raykyan said, “The company is in talks with partners to launch outlets in West Asia, the UK, Singapore and South Africa.”

Shrenuj also plans to take Arisia in West Asia, Eastern Europe and Chinese market.

The lack of luxury retail space might be a hindrance in the domestic retail expansion. Gitanjali plans to open 200 exclusive chain of Nakshatra stores, while Shrenuj is banking on the network of existing jewellers, hotels and high-end multi-brand stores in the initial phase.

According to a report by Technopak Advisors on the changing retail landscape in India, the jewellery and watches market is pegged at $13.7 billion (Rs 53,841 crore). It is expected to register a 12 per cent growth by 2012, touching $23.6 billion (Rs 92, 741 crore).

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Understanding Short Term Trading

Before I begin, this blog is not for intraday traders. My definition of short term implies duration of around 2 to 3 months.

Short Term stock picking is no rocket science, but rather a visual interpretation of technical charts. A basic moving average on a time frame chart will show the direction of the securities movement.

Moving averages is a mathematical results calculated by averaging a number of past data points. Moving averages (MA) in it's basic form is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. Once the value of MA has been calculated, they are plotted onto a chart and then connected to create a moving average line. Typical moving averages used for short term trading are 50 MA and 100 MA.

Types of Moving Averages

1) Simple Moving Average (SMA)

SMA is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values on a rolling window of timeframe. The usefulness of the SMA is limited because each point in the data series is weighted the same, regardless of where it occurs in the sequence. Critics argue that the most recent data is more significant than the older data and should have a greater influence on the final result.

2) Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA overcomes the limits of SMA, where more weight is given to the recent prices in an attempt to make it more responsive to new information. When calculating the first point of the EMA, we may notice that there is no value available to use as the previous EMA. This small problem can be solved by starting the calculation with a simple moving average and continuing on with calculating the EMA.

The primary functions of a moving average is to identify trends and reversals, measure the strength of an asset's momentum and determine potential areas where an asset will find support or resistance. Moving averages are lagging indicator, which means they do not predict new trend, but confirm trends once they have been established.

A stock is deemed to be in an uptrend when the price is above a moving average and the average is sloping upward. Conversely, a trader will use a price below a downward sloping average to confirm a downtrend. Many traders will only consider holding a long position in an asset when the price is trading above a moving average.

In general, short-term momentum can be gauged by looking at moving averages that focus on time periods of 50 days or less. Looking at moving averages that are created with a period of 50 to 100 days is generally regarded as a good measure of medium-term momentum. Finally, any moving average that uses 100 days or more in the calculation can be used as a measure of long-term momentum.

Support, resistence and stoploss can be infered by referring the closet MA below or above the market price. The other factor that is used in short term momentum is the trading volume. The moving averages along with the trading volume can provide a better insight to short term movement.

Markets are moved by their largest participants - I believe this is the single most important principle in short-term trading. Accordingly, I track the presence of large traders by determining how much volume is in the market and how that compares to average. Because volume correlates very highly with volatility, the market's relative volume helps you determine the amount of movement likely at any given time frame--and it helps you handicap the odds of trending vs. remaining slow and range bound.